A full NBA slate on a Sunday is a betting luxury. There are matchups all day to target. If only we did not need to wait for football's anticlimactic end to enjoy days like today.
One prolonged injury absence creates clear rebounding value this evening, while an injury return should lessen the defensive emphasis on a certain superstar later tonight. Those opportunities lead these free NBA picks on Sunday, March 2.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
No one is surprised that Victor Wembanyama's absence has put the Spurs into a further tailspin. They have gone 2-4 both outright and against the spread since the All-Star Break, beating the woebegone Suns in the first game back and enjoying a De'Aaron Fox buzzer-beater last night to top the Grizzlies.
Ignore that Phoenix game. The Suns are undersized, one of their many problems. In those five other games, eight different players have reached double-digit rebounds against the Spurs.
Kelly Olynyk should not grab 27 rebounds against you in two games. Yves Missi should not find 26 in those same two games.
Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this prop in eight of the last 15 games in the last month of action, a trend that only somewhat suggests betting this. But when realizing how much San Antonio is struggling to rebound without Wembanyama, this value becomes clear.
First of all, he has been the NBA's best scorer since the start of February, averaging 30.7 points per game with four made 3-pointers per game. And he has done all that on lousy shooting, just 39.1% from the field and 33.6% from deep. Compare those rates to his shooting before February 1, 44.8% from the field and 42.3% from deep.
But Edwards' scoring jumped more than four points because he has taken 10 free throws per game in the last 10 games, compared to 5.3 before that.
The return of Julius Randle should not change that new trend. It should, however, create better looks for Edwards. The Timberwolves are generally lacking in creators, so Randle's return will be pivotal. That is the second angle, the impact Randle should have on opposing defensive assignments.
Lastly, Edwards should be motivated tonight. Two cheap technical fouls expelled him from Thursday's loss to the Lakers, and those elicited a suspension for Friday's loss to the Jazz. Edwards should be more focused on a win tonight than anyone, a win Minnesota desperately needs.
If he draws fouls -- Phoenix has sent opponents to the free throw line at the 12th-highest rate in the last month -- Edwards should continue his scoring, particularly with more open lanes awaiting him thanks to Randle's return. And Edwards should attack those drives with more energy tonight given his last few nights.
Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)
Scottie Barnes remains an underappreciated rebounder. As an easy example, he has cleared this rebounding prop in five of his last seven games, one of the exceptions coming by only the hook. In the last month of games, Barnes has grabbed at least seven rebounds in nine of 15 games.
None of this is new. This is who Barnes is. And, frankly, that might be enough logic for this entire handicap.
But to add some further thought, Barnes grabbed 11 rebounds in a 16-point win against Orlando on January 21. Will the presence of Franz Wagner so change things? It shouldn't.
It especially shouldn't given Orlando's vibes these days. Jalen Suggs' indefinite absence further dampens any hopes of a postseason run for the Magic, and they continue to slip in the Eastern Conference's standings.
Orlando's malaise will create ample opportunity for Barnes to continue his rebounding ways.