Good things come to those who wait, and DeAndre Hopkins is finally tasting the Super Bowl odds after 12 seasons in the NFL.
Hopkins lived through some rough quarterback play to get here, but his veteran presence could be a sneaky X-factor for the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, February 9.
My analysis
When the Kansas City Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins in October, it was designed to open up an offense that had looked sluggish in the opening weeks of the season. If you watched Hopkins on the right Sunday, it felt like a masterstroke -- like a four-catch, 90-yard outing against the Las Vegas Raiders in late November.
However, the impact of Xavier Worthy and the return of Hollywood Brown have made the Kansas City receiver room a little more crowded, and Hopkins enters Super Bowl LIX with just three receptions for 18 yards across his past three games.
The good news for bettors is that his minimal recent contributions have dragged the O/U on his receiving yards all the way down to 12.5 ahead of Sunday. Hopkins went past that number in his first nine contests as a Chief, and it's not as if he has to roll back the clock to cash this Over.
The Super Bowl is a whole different level of pressure and scrutiny, and I see Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes leaning on their steadiest veterans. That should mean an uptick in touches for both Travis Kelce and Hopkins. That duo was kept on ice in the AFC Championship, but don't be surprised if the Kansas City playbook leans in their direction on key third downs.
Hopkins has a long history of making clutch and contested catches. After such a winding journey to his first Super Bowl, I'm picking him to make the most of this moment.
I'm doubling down on Hopkins being a bigger part of the Kansas City game plan by taking the Over on 1.5 receptions for my SGP. Against a talented Philadelphia Eagles pass rush, Mahomes may avoid deep dropbacks to unleash Worthy and Brown downfield, instead relying on intermediate routes where Hopkins excels.
He had two or more catches in all 10 of his regular season games with the Chiefs, and at least four grabs in seven of those outings, so the connection and trust factor with Mahomes is established. If Kansas City finds itself playing from behind, this is an even stronger pick.
With the Eagles, it's going to be all about the run game on Sunday. That starts with Saquon Barkley, but Jalen Hurts has been almost unstoppable around the goal line.
Call it the Tush Push or the Brotherly Shove, but it's the most effective play in football, and an anytime touchdown for Philadelphia QB comes at a high-value price.
Hurts has rushed for 18 scores this season, including the playoffs, and he found the end zone three times in the NFC Championship. The Eagles pivot is going to get several chances for No. 19.