It's early, not too early. The GOP's governor lane is opening his way.
It's early, but not too early, to start talking about the 2028 governor's race. The only real name I'm hearing on the Republican side is Dave Boliek.
Eight months in as state auditor, Boliek has been a dynamo. The "sleeping giant is waking up" indeed, with rapid-fire audits and a 435-page DMV report to prove it. His relationship with the General Assembly is unusually strong, too, judging by the DAVE Act and the added tools they've handed his office.
The ingredients are there for a strong gubernatorial candidate. But will 2028 be the right time?
I wrote a few months ago that the party should think twice before rushing Boliek into a governor's race. After all, Gov. Josh Stein is going to be a buzzsaw in his re-elect bid. Incumbency, fundraising, and a party built for executive races make him tough to beat.
I still believe you need eight years in an office, not just four, to really change it. And you're stronger running for higher office after you've defended your record and won re-election.
Running as an incumbent is a much different challenge than running as a change agent, and the experience gives you a huge amount of confidence before the next step. Years ago I argued that Mark Johnson should have run for re-elect as state superintendent of public instruction instead of a quixotic bid for lieutenant governor. Same principle.
Republicans have to run somebody, and Michael Whatley won't be in the mix now that he's running for Senate.
That leaves a short list, and Boliek is at the top of it. He has stature. He's fixing parts of government people touch every day. If Republicans want a serious contrast with Stein, this is it: law first, politics second; delivery over drama.
North Carolina has never elevated a state auditor to the Governor's Mansion. But there's also never been this kind of energy in the auditor's office -- an agency retooled, resourced, and determined to show its work in public.
One more reality, and this is the tricky one. GOP leaders may encourage Boliek to run. They trust him now because the partnership works: he audits, they legislate.
But a Republican in the Executive Mansion changes the power balance. The same independence that makes Boliek attractive as a candidate could make him less popular with Jones Street if he insists on doing things his way. The power brokers on Jones Street like a partner; they don't like a rival center of gravity.
As far as good governance goes, I still favor eight years in the office you're changing, then a leap. As a political matter, though, Boliek should certainly keep the 2028 door open.
If Boliek runs, he can't pull a Mark Robinson and check out of the job to chase the next one. He has to keep the auditor brand intact: fair, focused, efficient, and results people can feel.
Share
Last week, I asked if you had ever donated to a judicial candidate. Two-thirds of you said yes. That's honestly a little higher than I was expecting.