Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant is an elite prop target on Sunday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Sunday's NBA action kicks off at 1 p.m. EST with the top two teams in the Western Conference - the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder - facing off in a potential Western Conference Finals preview.
Denver is set as an underdog in that game, but is it undervalued? I have a pick for that game to kick off today's NBA Best Bets, as well as two other plays.
One of those picks is a player prop for Kevin Durant, who has been on fire scoring the ball heading into an afternoon matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.
Here's complete breakdown of my favorite plays for March 9.
There are a ton of players sitting out on both sides in the Utah Jazz-Philadelphia 76ers matchup on Sunday:
However, there is one trend I can't look past. The Sixers are just 1-13 against the spread when favored at home this season, and they're down their three best players in this matchup. As bad as Utah has been this season, it is still over .500 against the spread as a road underdog, and it's played plenty of games without those five veterans as it continues to tank for a better draft pick.
The Sixers, on the other hand, have won just one of their last 10 games and rank 29th in the NBA in net rating (-11.4) over that stretch. I cannot back them to win this game - never mind win it by seven or more points - even against the Jazz.
Durant has been rolling for the Phoenix Suns, putting up 36, 41 and 38 points and rebounds over his last three games. He's cleared 31.5 points and rebounds in eight of his last 11 matchups since returning from a three-game absence.
Over that 11-game stretch, KD is averaging 26.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while playing over 40 minutes a night. The Suns desperately need Sunday's game against Dallas to make some ground up for the No. 10 seed, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Durant play some major minutes.
On top of that, the Mavs are just 20th in defensive rating and 29th in rebounding percentage over their last 10 games. With so many key players out for Dallas, KD should be in line for a huge game on Sunday.
Now, what we've all been waiting for, my pick for the game of the day on Sunday.
Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder will have all of their starters back in action after they sat on Friday, I'm not sold on them covering this number against Denver.
This is a matchup between the No. 1 defense (OKC) and the No. 2 offense (Denver) this season, and these teams split their first two matchups.
While the Nuggets lost by 15 against OKC earlier this season, these teams haven't played since November, so there's not much to take away from those matchups. Both of these teams have fared well against the spread in this spot (OKC is 19-10-2 ATS as a home favorite, Denver is 6-4 ATS as a road dog), but I think eight points is a few too many in this matchup.
The Nuggets have a worse net rating than OKC over their last 15 games, but the Thunder have slipped out of the top five in the NBA in defensive rating during that stretch.
Nikola Jokic is the great equalizer for Denver against an elite defense, and the Nuggets are finally healthy with Aaron Gordon returning to action after a three-game absence.
The total for this game is also all the way up at 241, as the Thunder have posted the No. 2 offensive rating in the league over their last 15 games. I think a high-scoring game favors the Nuggets in this matchup, as they aren't nearly as dominant in the half court on defense as the Thunder.
OKC probably still wins this game, but I'll take the points with a Denver team that has proven to be one of the best in the league after a relatively slow start.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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